Statistically Speaking
Many of you know I am a computer programmer by trade, so statistics and analytics are definitely in my wheel house. Last year, while on the Dr. Phil show I asked an ICAC task force police officer what I felt was an important question. If you are interested in saving children, if that is the reason you run police proactive stings entrapping innocent men, then why do you not search these ‘sexual predators’ homes for evidence both to corroborate your accusations AND to identify, and help past or present victims?
The police officer answered my question with ‘We do.’ Unfortunately that was the only question I was allowed to ask, and Dr. Phil just accepted the officers answer, actually all of the officers answers, without any push back. While I was aggravated, I understand the Dr. Phil show is a reality show, designed for entertainment, and is in no position to back men accused of being predators. I did expect more from this man, much as I expected more from the police, prosecutors, and judges involved in these cases, but I’ve had to learn to live with disappointment.
Part of my agenda since then is to gather data on these stings:
- There are crime reports submitted by local police across the nation for every arrest they make.
- I created an online survey posted on advocate websites across the country
- A C.A.G.E. workgroup is gathering all ICAC performance reports from inception through 2022
I am hoping to spread word of the Police Proactive Sex Sting survey while at the NARSOL conference next month. Understandably there is only a 50% completion rate of those who start filling out the questionnaire. But of the data we have collected so far, with the majority of respondents coming from Florida, here are some statistics that might intrigue you.
- 63% reported having purposely stopped the conversation at least once
- 68% report non sexual communication being interrupted by LE, and led back to a sexual nature
- 70% were on an app requiring the user to verify they are over 18
- 17% of those arrested never left their house
- 30% of the arrested ‘predators’ had their houses searched
- 91% had their names broadcasted by the media upon arrest
- 23% had their employers name broadcasted by the media
We have also received a few states ICAC reporting to date. These are the numbers used by the DOJ for funding purposes. ICAC funding is calculated off of a number of different data points, but arrests and prosecutions are among them.
An interesting statistic we found recently in WA state was that in 2015, at the start of Washington’s Net Nanny proactive sting campaign, 1 out of 4 arrests were proactive. By 2017, 2 out of 3 were from proactive stings versus reactive stings. It did not take WA state long to understand the perverse incentives available through proactive stings!
But there is a possibly even more perverse outcome that I have uncovered. Remember me saying crime reports for every incident are collected across the nation? These go into a database called UCR (Unified Crime Reporting), and it’s updated counterpart NIBRS (National Incident-Based Reporting System), operated by the FBI. I wanted to search NIBRS for the number of sexual offenses involving no actual victim. My theory being that these numbers could be used against the ICAC reports to get a pretty good idea of what’s really happening versus any twisted, inflated reporting.
Every offense reported for things such as ‘attempted rape of a child’, ‘communicating with a child for immoral purposes’ or any number of state specific crimes, that have no victim, are all listed WITH A VICTIM!
How is that even possible? Well the support people at the FBI informed me that proactive sting incidents are to be reported as if the victim WAS the person the officer was impersonating. They even told me that is a common question among training officers. I was floored. So says I, have there been requests to add in an answer to such crimes as ‘no victim’? I know that questions, and responses, have been added and adjusted every year. Knowing proactive stings have been around for at least two decades…surely there is a request in to be able to record exactly what happened, right? NOPE. They have no plans to alter their data collection to include victimless sexual offenses. Oversight? I think not.
At first this floored me for the obvious reason that we cannot verify ICACs numbers submitted for federal and state funding. And that bothered me as there are already so few checks and balances involved in ICAC operations. But then it also dawned on me that we, as a nation, can also no longer accurately site statistics on minors going online looking for sex with adults, or parents offering their children for money or their own satisfaction.
So when ICAC goes in front of legislators looking for additional funding, armed with statistics about the number of youth being sought out online, by adults, for sex….where are they getting these numbers from exactly?
I got caught in one of these stings and I have to say it opened my eyes to ugliness of the justice system. I never supported the registry and other restrictions placed on people who have done their time. Just because someone thinks they have to know doesn’t mean they should. Way not throw out everyone’s baggage because it’s not the government’s job to keep you safe, it’s yours.
I’ll have ask my sister in law if there’s any updated research on sexual offenses. Being a Criminologist/Sociologist/Researcher/ and Professor I’m sure she can point me in the right direction.
Yes the fact that it doesn’t matter that it was an undercover agent is written into the statute.
The charge is called “Computer Pornography” which I’ve sense realized is totally on purpose. Always fair when the title of the crime under which i was convicted is actually worse than the crime itself.
Further my situation only became a crime due to a specific feature to AOL online chat system. I was in a room called WPBM4M (that’s men for men, btw). AOL of course doesn’t even exit today. When I was first arrested I truly felt that it would soon be realized this is all a big misunderstanding. WRONG! I was a pedophilic monster lurky the internet for kids and that was the end of it!!
22 years and it still feels like the Twilight Zone…..
rpsabq
Your story contains one flaw. AOL not only exists, I am using it right now. I have been an AOL member since 1985. Maybe you meant AOL chat or rooms don’t exist anymore. My Mom and Dad still have AOL accounts as well.
Verizon bought out AOL but kept the name. I log into my AOL every day and have it registered with the Gestapo as required by the registry.
Very helpful information! All we can assert from the “missing” data is that the number of victims and people seeking victims is less than that reported by ICAC. Although we can never discern whether it is 10% or 90% less. That is a fact I can use to diminish LE credibility when I write my legislature. Not including a simple one-bit flag in the computer data to indicate a sting is nothing less than willful blindness, or willful deceit. I wonder if it is possible to resurrect that information from ICAC archives. Is a FOIA request possible?
The emphasis on human trafficking is the current political bandwagon, which I fully support if the data are real. Do we actually know the extent of this problem, or is there manipulation of these data as well?
Veritas (if that is possible).
Do not worry about Doctor Phil. I remember a few years ago, after watching one of his show, I noticed he was blinking nervously a lot. I told my wife I am going to cure this madman. I sent an e-mail to him making him aware of his eye twitch, and told him he was not fit to talk about the issue at hand that particular day. Next day he stop twitching his eyes. I told my wife I am a better psychologist than he is.
Mentioned in this submission is “The Dr. Phil Show”. I stopped watching him when he argued with a guest saying “its just Dr. Phil, this isn’t a show.” Yet, the credits call it appropriately The Dr. Phil Show. Put simply, the guy is full of bs! He is one of the biggest promoters of himself and his family. They’ve gotten rich off the misery of others.
Dr. phil is as useless as John Walsh, Nancy Grace, and Oprah are when it comes to solving crime. A bunch of hot air and that’s all.
To anyone interested in digging further for data: this is a volunteer opportunity. Reach out to this Member for leads, sources, and tips.
Thank you, C.A.G.E.!
That also happens with drug stings. Having worked in Law enforcement before, I refused to work drug stings. It is one thing to watch a dealer, get a warrant and go into their house and find 100’s of bags of drugs.
It is another thing for a cop to dress up and a buyer or dealer and entrap someone. Yes I know that many of those people would have bought the drugs anyway, but there are a LOT of unsolved murders out there because of lack of man power. This is because they are going after the easy fish to catch that will bite on any bait.
I’ve never in my entire teen to adult life agreed with cops posing as drug DEALERS to catch the BUYERS. The buyers have an addiction that needs treatment. That tactic was a waste of resources. I can, however, agree with posing as the BUYER to catch the DEALER in order to stop the flow of narcotics.
But what they’re doing online is not even to be compared to undercover drug stings. Online, they are using ADULT DATING APPS to entrap men whose INITIAL INTENTIONS were to seek out other ADULTS for dating or what have you.
It is much easier to create a crime than it is to look for someone who actually broke the law. That is why they do it. Then they can ask the Justice Department for grants to fund the victimless crimes. The more arrest the more money. My son didn’t make a call to talk to the , so called, under age girl the male office called him. That should have thrown the case out but it was never brought up. I had been an officer in Jacksonville, Fl at one time and it took me three years before I understood how they trapped my son. By then it was too late. I have been saying if FAC and other groups would work together on the stings it would be like an house of cards. Showing how stings trap people would destroy all the other sex related issues like registry where you can live etc.
Sidney
Thank you for your service to the community. I was in law enforcement for a while as well. If you are a decent person, you saw things that really bothered you. I could no longer take the abuse of people like homeless that got their teeth knocked out because they were sleeping on a park bench. One particular guy was a decorated Marine in Vietnam.
Anyway, what I wanted to say is, former cops who have a relative on the registry would make great speakers in front of the legislators concerning the pathetic retro actively punishment placed on ex offenders on the registry.
I cannot do it myself because an ex cop on the registry would fall on deaf ears. But someone who was in law enforcement and has a relative on the registry would make a great impact even if just one person “Got it”.
Thank you for this eye-opening data. I have included it in my saved research on stings.
In today’s world even law enforcement is willing to lie to support their agenda…and paycheck. If there is no crime, they will create one. I have a Florida experience that sort of backs that up. My failure was in Virginia. I confessed and was convicted of ‘custodial indecent liberties’. I was not considered a predator in the state where the offense took place. Since moving to Florida I have been removed from the Virginia registry and released from probation eleven years early. I moved to Florida because my parent’s health required me to. I love it here and have made numerous new friends. My retirement home is here. However, my decision to move here had some baggage. I was put on the Florida registry and without another offense was declared a predator without any such act. I probably maintain a more ‘strait arrow’ lifestyle than 99% of the politicians, yet I am the ‘bad’ guy’ worthy of monitoring. It just shows how screwed up justice is in Florida.
Excellent work. When you have your data all in order I hope you will find the time to try to reach out to publications like Reason. Places that are interested in facts. Your advocacy is appreciated by so many. Thank you!
It always gets me these people go on adult sites. How many actual under 18’s actually go on line looking to hookup with an adult? And talk like that? Any?
Actually, yes, there are a few. I met a woman about 3 or so yrs ago who was 23 at the time and told me she’d been on and off the adult dating apps since she was 15.
Although you have to be 18+ to use the apps, you don’t have to PROVE your age. You just simply tick a box that says you have read the TOS rules. Anyone can do that.
It’s all about MONEY. That’s all the registry and fake arrests have EVER been about. Federal and state dollars given to counties for head counts. Just like public schools. Ever wonder why truancy is a crime? Because the school doesn’t get their money for you is you’re not in attendance. It’s the same thing. Notice there’s never a balance sheet either. There is no way to calculate the expenses and budgets of state’s sex offender programs. The Byrne fund isn’t all there is. That’s just the drop in the bucket they don’t get if they don’t participate in SORNA. It’s ALL about the money. Always follow the money.
Correct Ben it IS about the money. Unfortunately most people believe “statistics” and never think to question them. Personally I do not believe any “statistics” 100%. So after swallowing the statistics people then come to an emotion based decision…never once critically questioning anything. “They know the truth!!! Plays on the greatest of human weaknesses…FEAR. Great article FAC……
Outstanding, tireless, FACT-based advocacy!
So now how to you get the real numbers to the person’s holding the purse strings because in any other endeavor reporting inaccurate numbers purposely could and probably would be considered fraud
I would like to know that, too. I know that Lady Justice Myth will share that information if she is able to find out.
I do know that annually this country spends anywhere from 10 to 40 billion dollars to monitor the registry. (“Grand Challenges: Social Justice and the Need for Evidence-Based Sex Offender Registry Reform”, Jill S. Levenson, Melissa D. Grady, and George S. Leibowitz, Journal of Sociology and Social Welfare, ResearchGate, pages 15-16)
With about 60% of the people on the Florida registry not actually living in Florida, I have to wonder how much money the state of Florida is receiving for this 60%.