Nature, nurture, or numbers?: 19 Kids and Counting is Now at 2 Kids and Counting
News broke overnight that Joseph Duggar, one of the children on the popular TV reality show ’19 Kids and Counting’, was arrested over allegations of a sex offense involving a minor. On its own, a celebrity getting charged with a sex offense makes headlines, but what’s making people pause isn’t just the accusation — it’s the last name. That’s because Joseph’s older brother, Josh Duggar, is already serving a 151-month federal sentence for child sex crimes. Two brothers. Same famous family. Similar types of crimes. At some point, people naturally start asking “what are the odds of that happening”?
There are a few thoughts that immediately come to mind… One angle is genetics. Some research suggests that criminal behavior, including sexual offending, can run in families to a degree. An Oxford study out of Sweden found that about 40% of the risk for sexual offending could be linked to genetic factors. That doesn’t mean someone is “born to do it,” but it does suggest some people may be more predisposed than others.
Then there’s environment. A Cambridge study that examined criminal behavior among siblings found that risk comes from shared environmental factors and life experiences. Things like peer groups and exposure. Again, that’s not a pre-determination – siblings raised in the same house often end up very different depending on what they encounter and how they respond to it. But there’s a reality that siblings influence each other, especially in large families. Behavior—good or bad—can get normalized or repeated.
And then there’s the simplest explanation of all: numbers. The Duggar family has 19 kids. In any large enough group, you’ll have a percentage that commit crime. It’s pretty logical that statistically speaking, the more people you have in a family, the higher the chance that someone in the family will end up on the wrong side of the law.
Cases like this also bring to mind a situation closer to home, the Alexander brothers from South Florida, who last week were convicted of sex crimes. Was it driven by something inherent, a shared predisposition that runs in families? Or is it simply the result of proximity — brothers who are close, who spend time together, who operate in the same circles and make decisions side by side? In situations like that, the explanation often feels less abstract than genetics and more practical: people who move together, act together. But even then, the line isn’t always clear. These are serious sex crimes. So it feeds back into the same larger uncertainty — how much of behavior is shared wiring, how much is shared life, and how much is a numbers game? If the U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS, 2019) reports that 1 in 5 women (20%) will experience sexual assault in their lifetime, there are hundreds of thousands of people committing these crimes and it’ll hit home every so often.
Crime isn’t rare, but when it happens more than once in the same family it raises questions. Is this genetics, environment, chance, or some combination of all three? The truth is, research can’t give a neat answer. Biology may play a role. Upbringing and proximity matter. And sometimes, it may be pure coincidence.
What’s clear, though, is this: anyone can be one misstep, one exposure, or one bad decision away from becoming a sexual offender, and it could be someone in your family, or even yourself. That’s why focusing on longer sentences or stricter sex offender restrictions after the fact isn’t effective. If the allegations against Joseph Duggar are true, his brother Josh’s prior conviction clearly had no deterrent effect. The lesson is clear: the most effective way to reduce sexual offending isn’t longer sentences or harsher sex offender laws targeting people who already committed offenses in the past. It’s investing in awareness, education, and prevention for the benefit of people who have not committed crimes and not been victimized yet. By giving people the tools to stop abuse before it happens, rather than reacting after the damage is done, we can make our public safer.
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The line that struck me most was this: “Anyone can be one misstep away from becoming a sex offender.” That reality alone should make us rethink the idea that longer sentences or harsher restrictions somehow make the public safer. They don’t. As the article said, the most effective way to reduce sexual offending isn’t piling on punishment after the fact — it’s investing in awareness, education, and prevention for people who have not offended and not been victimized yet. Prevention protects society; endless punishment only destroys lives.
Once you enter the justice system, your life — and your family’s life — is over as you knew it. My family fell apart. The annual camping trips died. The closeness died. My retirement and travel died. My freedom died. Shaming emerged. And depending on your state, it all dies for a lifetime. The punishment either keeps being added or simply never ends. That is not what I was taught America stands for. We claim to believe in life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, yet we’ve built a system where certain citizens are permanently stripped of all three. And the courts, police, lawmakers, and public servants all remain silent.
When something in society breaks, the media and the public often respond by demonizing a group of people. Half a century ago, that demonization took the form of lynchings, segregated drinking fountains, and seats in the back of the bus. Today, it takes the form of lifetime registries, public shaming, housing bans, employment bans, and restrictions that have nothing to do with safety and everything to do with fear. Wake up – there is no difference.
We say that “time served” is the punishment. But in reality, the punishment never ends. Restrictions, degradation, and discrimination are piled endlessly onto people who have already paid their debt. That isn’t justice. It isn’t safety. And it isn’t the America we claim to be.
If we truly want a safer society, we need to stop pretending that destroying people forever somehow protects the public. Prevention, education, and early intervention do. Endless punishment does not.
FAC,
What are these prevention and education programs as well as other tools you speak of in this piece? Cite specific examples if you would, please, and not blanketly state education and prevention programs are needed without mentioning these programs and tools.
Everyone should read the book titled Three Felonies a Day…it exposes how anyone can be accused and prosecuted for a crime in the US because there are so many laws.
Or this one, “Over Ruled: The Human Toll of Too Much Law”
Written by Neil Gorsuch (with Janie Nitze)
One must remember that people get falsely accused of something that they didn’t do. I had that happen once. Good thing they didn’t believe the accuser
You’re lucky they didn’t believe the accuser in your case. There are those of us suffering with the burden that were in fact falsely accused and are paying the penalty for it. The system is broken and the penalties increase ex post facto every year.
The inconsistencies are so proliferate in the so called justice system that there ay be no fixing it.
I know your right that is the case
How awful this has happened again. I guess it was happening simultaneously when the other Duggar was committing his crimes too. It’s rarely a stranger who abuses children.