The US Department of Justice Bureau of Justice Statistics released a report this month entitled, “Recidivism of Sex Ofenders Released from State Prison: A 9-Year Follow-Up (2005-14)”. As reported by NARSOL, the new study shows sexual offense recidivism rates lower that previous estimates.
- The median sentence length among prisoners released in 30 states in 2005 after serving time for rape or sexual assault (60 months) was longer than the median sentence length among all prisoners (36 months)
- Sex offenders were less likely than other released prisoners to be arrested during the 9 years following release
- The longer sex offenders went without being arrested after release, the less likely they were to be arrested during the 9-year follow-up period.
- The majority of arrests for a specific type of crime did not involve those who had been in prison for the same type of offense.
- At the end of the 9-year follow-up period, male sex offenders had a lower cumulative arrest percentage than all male prisoners.
http://www.oncefallen.com/unique_threat_myth.html
As a follow-up, I have written a new report based on the misleading claim that ‘sex offenders are three times more likely to reoffend” as headlined by the BJS in their press release.
Lets not forget the current political “spin cycle” that gets applied to all news.
My guess is this will be, “Success of the registry can be seen in the reduction of recidivists from previous frightening and high levels.”
I found this sentence interesting:
“Released prisoners whose most serious commitment offense was a non-violent sex offense, such as prostitution or pornography, are included with public-order offenders.”
So can I get my status changed from “Sex Offender” to “Public-Order Offender?” LOL
LEOs and Floriduh Legislators will just look at the cover page and say:
Rape and sexual assault offenders were more likely than other released prisoners to be arrested for rape or sexual assault
Released sex offenders were more than three times as likely as other released prisoners to be arrested for rape or sexual assault
Half of released sex offenders had a subsequent arrest that led to a conviction
No more decisions based on Psychology Magazine?
We will continue to see such decisions until these stats are properly argued in court enough times to cause the “frightening and high” precedent to be overturned.
I am sorry if this is off topic I was wondering if I could get an answer I Am Not Asking For Legal Advice Is it 8 years or 12 years one must wait to asked for his firearm authority back to file with Florida Governor office? I saw 8 years on application and then I saw someone write 12 years here on the threads. Respectfully
@beefstew327,
Here are the official rules of executive clemency:
https://www.fcor.state.fl.us/docs/clemency/clemency_rules.pdf
Good luck making sense of them!
Thanks JZ You right they very confusing. No wonder that state is so mess up
What I see out of this is initially it doesn’t look good as there recidivism rates seem higher than other studies. But then they are only comparing those with prison sentences which is only a fraction of those put on the registry. But also of the almost 400,000 they say 20,000 are for rape or serious assault that’s 5%. And only a fraction of that is against minors. But these important distinctions are missing. So in my opinion they are purposely leaving out statistics that would make the registry seam deceptive in its design to make all on the registry to appear on a par with rapists and violent assaulters.
Study’s such as these have been around for years. Like those study’s of years past this study will not help us either, nor will the ones that come in the years of the future. What’s it gonna take for all this heart ache to leave us?
This is a reassuring study. One that helps remind us that a poor decision in youth is not always an accurate indicator of character.
One of the best studies I have ever run across is one published in the Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology (June 2002) titled “Once a sex offender…always a sex offender: Fact or Myth” I was able to acquire a paper copy, but apparently you have to pay to get it online. However, the researchers followed roughly 30,000 sex offenders for more than ten years in three different countries (United States, Canada, United Kingdom). Repeat sex offense rate was less than 2%. This has a LOT of statistics in it, but is one of the best documented studies I have ever seen. I even submitted a copy in my clemency papers here in Florida. Might as well have saved the ink for copying. It was at that point I figured out that some people don’t want to hear the truth. It seems as if “ignorance were bliss” then politicians would be the happiest people on the planet!
Could use some analysis in order to better understand what this means.
This ABSOLUTELY and UNEQUIVOCALLY refutes the “frightening and high” recidivism rate that all of these intrusive (and unconstitutional) laws are based on by reinforcing the previous statistics!
STAND UP AND BE HEARD PEOPLE!!!!
We must absolutely TRUMPET this (and refuse to be silenced)!!!
Speak NOW to every person that you know. Strike up casual conversations with strangers, even. But speak in you own behalf!
I SHALL!!!
This is in response to JJJJ
I’m sorry but it all looks like gobbledygook to me and it seems to uphold the very opposite of what you’re talking about. The average Joe reading this and trying to make sense of it comes away with a completely false picture. Most of them reading that 67% after nine years out seems awfully “frightening and high” for any kind of crime. When they discuss sex offenders they are specifically describing those convicted of rape or sexual assault. But what about everybody else designated a “sex offender” who has never molested anyone but just happened to possess or look at a few contraband pictures?
“Recidivism of Sex Offenders” is a very misleading title for this study. It appears to me after my first quick reading of the document that their stats all involve arrests, rather than convictions. Obviously, when you are on a published registry of convicted sex offenders, you are much more likely to be investigated by police for new alleged crimes. I will add that you are also a bigger target for false accusations. I even noticed that one of their disclaimers said that it was not possible to differentiate between those incarcerated for a new crime versus those who were returned to prison for parole or probation violations. All of that indicates to me that true “recidivism” rates are much lower that this study concludes. Have to go to work now, but I will read the document more closely later. I just don’t see how you equate recidivism rates with arrest rates.
Buried in the report is a notice only half of arrests lead to convictions.
WOW, is all about I can say.
So will this be the new standard for judicial reference? Scotus would have to defer to these numbers rather than the inflated ones?
SCOTUS won’t have to use them, but they WILL have to consider them IF they are properly presented to them in case arguments.
Given that “frightening and high” remains court precedent, they will need to be particularly persuasive.
It so happens, though, that even without this new study, there already was enough data at the time to show that “frightening and high” was incorrect. It just wasn’t properly argued before SCOTUS.
FAC’s “ex post facto plus” filings I think do a good job laying the groundwork for the argument that SCOTUS erred so badly with “frightening and high” that they MUST reverse themselves less than two decades later.
As long as Justice Kennedy sits on SCOTUS The other Justices will not go against this “frighting and high” statement . Either Justice Kennedy admits he was wrong and fixes it himself or He excuses himself from office. Then the other Justices might do something. Either way no other Justice going to say different till Justice Kennedy departs, admits wrongfully the facts and data are wrong.
The other problem Is Lawmakers want to include their agenda and faith. Let us Continue to keep church and state separate because all I see is “Christian” Lawmakers make laws for us but yet escape the same fate that awaits for one of us.
Pretty sure Kennedy is no longer a SCOTUS justice.
Kennedy was replaced by Kavanaugh.
Good! Now defendants/plaintiffs must start filing the DOJ recognizes low rates of recidivism as evidence in their cases to get courts to recognize the truth.
So rapists have a 7.7% recidivism rate? I wonder what the rate is for serious property crime? Wonder what the rate is for sex offenders who did not go to prison or commit a forcible sex crime? They actually had folks convicted of sex offenses who didn’t go to prison back in 2005.
Dearest rates are not accurate recidivism rates because only half of those arrested were convicted.
Not surprising and common sense to most of us. But we all know these reports are meaningless in the hands of legislators. They are going to vote and propose idiot bills to benefit them and boost their image rather than pay attention to inconvenient facts.
As long as the prison and therapy industrial complexes in Florida are thriving off of sex charges and as long as the Federal Govt continues allowing these swindling sheriffs in these Florida counties to continue running sting operations and getting the grant money, do you HONESTLY think anything will change???
Thank you for interpreting this study. I started reading and it seemed dismal and just got overwhelmed and stopped. I hope lawmakers will take the time to understand the statistics. They never have before.
Remember that the DOJ will always present the facts in the light most favorable to law enforcement. After all – that’s what feeds their jobs.
Also feeds the lies and propaganda that keep the entire political machine in the Dysfunction States is America going by ignoring reality and keeping everyone’s head in the sand ignoring pesky things like scientific statistical proof and the most troubling of all to politicians – Common Sense!