Big Numbers Need the Whole Story
Florida Action Committee Media
Big Numbers Need the Whole Story
Southwest Florida • October 7, 2026
Lukas Blazek / Pexels.
I read Vanessa Norris’s October 7 report on Southwest Florida crime statistics for the Fort Myers News-Press and Naples Daily News, part of the USA TODAY Network. These cases are serious. Children deserve protection. Families also deserve the full story.
Most readers without a subscription will likely face a paywall. We have included key numbers and free sources below. If the paper offers a gift link, subscribers can share it.
Groups can shape statistics to support their own interests by choosing certain years, counting charges instead of people, or showing only one county. That does not prove anyone lied. It means we should ask what the numbers measure.
The article says tips rose from 2,300 in 2017 to 25,000 in 2025. That is about a 987% increase. The math works. But tips report suspected activity. They do not count separate victims or proven crimes.
NCMEC’s free report explains that reporting rules changed and abusive images can circulate repeatedly. More tips can reflect better detection, more abuse, or several changes together.
Here are the local arrests reported in the article:
| County | Full-year 2025 | Partial-year 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Lee | 19 | At least 11 |
| Collier | 10 | At least 11 |
Using 11 for each county, Lee looks 42% lower, while Collier looks 10% higher. Together, 22 compared with 29 looks 24% lower. Someone could pick whichever comparison helps their message. Different time periods cannot establish a fair yearly trend.
The article also lists 588 tips and 11 arrests in Lee, and 256 tips and 11 arrests in Collier. That does not make the other tips false. Several tips may concern one case. Investigations may still be open.
For example, 30 charges against three people still means three people. Charges, arrests, convictions and victims measure different things.
At FAC, we want policies that prevent harm. A review of 18 studies found no clear overall drop in repeat offending from registration and public notification.
Lee and Collier families deserve honest comparisons. People on the registry and their children deserve fair treatment. Someone else’s arrest should never become a reason to threaten a neighbor.
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Manipulating statistics has been going on for years. The media does it to make for more compelling stories. Politicians do it for votes. Researchers do it to arrive at pre-determined conclusions. It’s nothing new.
The best, if not only, way to combat that is to identify the holes and gaps in the procedure that concluded with the statistic. I do it frequently – there was a post here at FAC that shows it, though it has since come down. But the doubts of one person isn’t going to raise eyebrows. It takes large numbers of people to cast doubts on the conclusions of purported expert researchers and statisticians.
The problem with sexual re-offense studies is not that they are fudged. In fact, in most cases, they are not.
Instead, the problem is that they do not appear at all to sway elected officials, who continue to buy into the notion of “frightening and high” (for which there is NO peer reviewed study).
The research overwhelmingly supports our position, so I don’t understand why anyone in our movement would go on a campaign to plant doubts in the minds of the public regarding the research. What we need is MORE attention to the research, not less.
It’s all about context and narrative. Slow news cycles drive bad reporting.